A new service may stimulate market demand. Fligence Planning applies market stimulation only to the first direct flight introduced in a market by any carrier.

The system’s advanced forecasting features, as illustrated in Figure 1, include:

Market Stimulation by New Service: It allows for setting stimulation rates for new services, which calculate added demand based on new seats, service QSI scores, and the stimulation factors defined by you. For instance, with 1000 new seats, stimulation factors of 40% for local markets, and 5% for connecting markets, plus QSI scores allocating 80% to local traffic, 15% to connecting market A, and 5% to connecting market B, additional demand would be 320 local passengers (1000 * 80% * 40%), 7.5 for market A (1000 * 15% * 5%), and 2.5 for market B (1000 * 5% * 5%). Stimulation factors can range from 0% to 100%.

Please note that New Service refers to a new direct flight introduced by any carrier in the market. If a direct flight already exists with Carrier A, and you add another direct flight with Carrier B, the system will not generate additional market stimulation.

Spill & Recapture: Scenarios can be run in Unconstrained mode (forecast based on market size and QSI scores) or Constrained mode (preventing forecasted demand from exceeding capacity). Forecast in Unconstrained mode may lead to forecast traffic exceeding seat capacity, which can be useful for fleet planning. If you want to prevent demand from exceeding capacity, use C Factor and K Factor to simulate real-world constraints.

  • C Factor: Represents the capacity spoilage factor, where a higher value decreases the effective capacity.
  • K Factor: Indicates demand variability, where a higher value increases the likelihood and volume of spill.
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Segment Proration: This involves allocating O&D revenue to individual flight segments to calculate profitability. The system offers the IATA SRP prorate method, which applies different weights based on regional pairs, and the SQRT Miles method, which utilizes the square root of segment distances to allocate revenue.

Modal Calibration: The automatic calibration feature in the system adjusts the share gap table by market to ensure forecast alignment with actual data. You can use your airline’s historical traffic data or global traffic data integrated in the system as a benchmark for calibration. To use the latter, select a specific travel month with the Calendar control.