The US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) published airport-level passenger throughput up to July 9, 2022. This covers before and after the Independence Day holiday. Let’s look at the US air traffic trend. Please refer to this article about how we choose specific airports as representatives for US domestic, international, leisure, and business markets.
U.S. Overall Air Traffic Status
As shown in Figure 1, the overall US air traffic went up before the July 4th holiday and came down after. This aligns with the pattern in a normal year like 2019. The gap between 2022 and 2019 increased slightly in the second half of June. But we expect the gap to dwindle in the next two months.
Figure 1: US Overall Air Traffic Trend
Domestic Air Traffic Indicator
As shown in Figure 2, the domestic air traffic has been flat in June. There was less traffic around the July 4th holiday. Please note that we use DEN (Denver), CLT (Charlotte), and PHX (Phoenix) as representative airports for domestic traffic because they have the largest percentage of passengers traveling domestically. Nevertheless, they still have some international traffic, which lags behind the domestic traffic. That’s why the 2022 blue line is still below the 2019 red line in Figure 2. According to another report based on total market statistics, the overall US domestic air traffic has exceeded its pre-pandemic level since this April. We expect that the domestic traffic goes up in the next several days and reaches its peak around the end of July.
Figure 2: US Domestic Air Traffic Indicator
International Air Traffic Indicator
Figure 3 is an indicator of the US international traffic. The gap between 2022 and 2019 fluctuated slightly. But we expect the international traffic to catch up to the 2019 level in a near future.
Figure 3: US International Air Traffic Indicator
Leisure Air Traffic Indicator
As shown in Figure 4, the leisure air market cooled down in June and the beginning of July. We expect it to grow in August.
Figure 4: US Leisure Air Traffic Indicator
Business Air Traffic Indicator
As shown in Figure 5, the recovery pace of the business air traffic slowed down in June. But the situation will improve after the summer when people get back from their vacations.
Figure 5: US Business Air Traffic Indicator
To summarize, the US air traffic went up before the July 4th holiday and down after, the same as in a normal year. We expect the traffic to grow and reach its peak in the summer.